Five Things That Could Kill Facebook

For all the excitement about Facebook%u2019s explosive growth, it somehow feels like a huge fad that could disappear or, at least, dissipate, if something cooler comes rumbling over the horizon. When parents and businesses start embracing Facebook, it%u2019s probably the time for the new %u201Cbar%u201D down the street to suddenly get %u201Chot%u201D.

Based on posts by Brad Feld and Fred Wilson, here%u2019s my list of why Facebook could go from fast-growing to so yesterday sooner than we think:

1. The evolution of its business model: What many people like about Facebook is it has a clean, easy-to-access look and feel. You log in, you quickly see what%u2019s been happening in your world, you do your thing. What happens when Facebook starts to introduce more advertising into the mix so it can start taking advantage of its billions of pageviews? Suddenly, the lean look disappears as the business model starts to move onto the scene.

2. In-box Contamination: Facebook works right now because you decide how big or small you want your community to be. As much as Facebook is hot, it%u2019s still manageable in terms of deciding who you want to invite/accept as a friend. But what happens - as Fred Wilson points out - when you%u2019re swamped with Facebook invites? Suddenly, Facebook runs into the same annoying problem as Plaxo and LinkedIn as your in-box gets invitation contamination.

3. Application noise. For all the excitement about Facebook opening its API to the world, it%u2019s also more noise for users. I can%u2019t tell you how many multiple invitations I%u2019ve got for Flixster, for example. It%u2019s already getting annoying. This is an issue Fred Wilson focused on.

4. The IPO: There%u2019s plenty of speculation Facebook could go public later year - a move that would allow Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to pull some money out of the company without giving up control. Once Facebook becomes a business that needs to meet the lofty expectations of Wall St., it%u2019s about the same time that the fun and all-for-one, one-for-all mentality starts to disappear.

5. Facebook Fatigue: Right now, Facebook is fun, it%u2019s new, it%u2019s a novelty but how useful is it really? How long before the millions of people who have piled into Facebook stop checking their profiles every day or, for that matter, every week.

Don%u2019t get me wrong; I think Facebook is a fascinating social phenomena as well as an amazing social networking tool. Maybe I%u2019m being too pragmatic or a non-believer but every party reaches a zenith before leveling out so I%u2019m curious about when that time comes for Facebook.

source: http://www.markevanstech.com

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