Xbox birthday signals death of 5-year console cycle

Since at least the mid-1980s, major console makers have generally come out with new models every five years or so. For example, the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) came out in 1985, followed by the Super NES in 1991, the Nintendo 64 in 1996, the GameCube in 2001, and the Dell inspiron 1440 battery Wii in 2006. Sony put out the first PlayStation in 1995 and followed up with the PS2 in 2000 and the PS3 in 2006. And Microsoft introduced the original Xbox in 2001 and released the Xbox 360 in 2005.
But now, with the Xbox 360 having turned five, and the PS3 and Nintendo's Wii both having just hit their fourth birthdays, many industry observers see the ongoing success of each of the three major platforms as evidence that neither Microsoft, Sony, nor Nintendo have any intentions of following up in the next year or so. And why should they? Consumers are still buying the machines by the hundreds of thousands each month, and ramped-up online initiatives are breathing new life into the systems.

"I've been saying since 2002," said Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter, "that the generation [started] in 2005 might be our last one."

But why would the major console makers pass up the opportunity to make big new splashes with, say, an Xbox 720, a PlayStation 4, or a Wii 2?

To observers like Pachter, a lot of it has to do with the fact that with the current generation of consoles (often called the "next-gen"), each company found a way to maximize either the technology behind the devices, or the utility to a wide range of new gamers.

For example, while Nintendo's Wii didn't break new ground in its graphics capabilities, its innovative and intuitive Wii controller made it possible to design games that appealed to millions of people who had never considered themselves gamers in the past. And at the same time, with the Xbox 360 and the PS3, Microsoft and Sony created machines capable of game play of such high quality and graphics capabilities that some think there's not that much room, or need, to grow any times soon.

Indeed, to Pachter, game play on these devices has reached the point where the games are sophisticated enough, and the microprocessors are so sophisticated already that there's little reason to create a new generation any time soon.

Extending the consoles, and the franchises
One thing that's become clear during the past year or so is that the console makers have found a way to extend the life cycles of their current machines without having to come out with new models.
Sony, of course, has traditionally played the five-year game even as it has continued to profit from previous generations of its consoles. For example, the PlayStation 2, which has sold well over 140 million units worldwide since being released in 2000, is still for sale, and developers are still churning out new PS2 games. Yet the PS3 is now 4 years old. That's the same cycle Hp pavilion dv7 battery the company went through previously with the original PlayStation and the early years of the PS2.

Indeed, Sony has long asserted that it believes its consoles have a 10-year life cycle--even as, in the past, it has followed the traditional five-year cycle.

"We at PlayStation have never subscribed to the concept that a console should last only five years," said Patrick Seybold, senior director of corporate communications for Sony Computer Entertainment. "Both the original PlayStation and PlayStation 2 had life cycles of more than 10 years, and PlayStation 3 will as well. The 10-year life cycle is a commitment we've made with every PlayStaiton consumer to date, and it's part of our philosophy that we provide hardware that will stand the test of time providing that fun experience you get from day one for the next decade."

Of course, with enmity between Sony and Microsoft always high, Seybold didn't pass up an opportunity to point out the shortcomings of the Xbox platform and to highlight the benefits of the PlayStation brand.

"Original Xbox owners were limited to the 5-year console, and Microsoft just stopped making the software and hardware at that 5-year [actually 4-year] mark," Seybold told CNET. "So those early-adopting Xbox consumers were quickly out of luck and new content, while PlayStation consumers know their investments in our consoles will bear fruit for years to come."

For Microsoft and Sony, that's manifested in the form of both cheaper and smaller versions of their current-gen consoles, as well as their innovative new motion-control systems, the Kinect and Move, respectively. By bringing in major new game play functionality with hot new accessories, the two companies have managed to build excitement amongst gamers, largely because of the promise of wide varieties of new games that can be produced for the Xbox and PS3.

After its early November release, Kinect quickly surpassed 1 million units sold and Microsoft expects to sell 5 million or more of the $150 device this year alone.
"Kinect has certainly given Microsoft a mid-life kicker," said Dean Takahashi, the author of "The Xbox 360 Uncloaked." "I wasn't expecting that to happen, and really thought the company would have had to introduce a brand-new console by now...Kinect has extended this generation. For how long, I don't know. But as long as the Xbox business is growing and profitable, Microsoft doesn't have to rush a new console generation into the market."

For its part, Microsoft, which didn't even bother to publicize the Xbox 360's fifth anniversary, doesn't seem interested in playing the nostalgia game when it comes to industry traditions like coming out with new consoles every five years or so. "If you build a great piece of hardware that is designed with real game developers in mind and provides services that publishers, developers, and creators can use," said Albert Penello, the senior Toshiba pa3594u-1brs battery director of Xbox product management, "and you have a group of people who are passionate about gaming and the industry, like Xbox 360 does, you can outlive the cycle."

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